Stats Can proof that ONPC Leader Tim Hudak’s 1 million jobs plan CAN work!

Macleans published an article by Mike Moffat on Monday, January 13th, 2014 suggesting that ONPC Leader Tim Hudak’s one million jobs plan, while ambitious and not impossible, will need a great deal of luck to become a reality. To prove that point, Moffat uses employment data for Ontario from Statistics Canada for the period 1977 to 2013.

In my opinion, what the Stats Canada tables and data prove is just the opposite to what Moffat is suggesting, that it doesn’t take luck, it takes good government policies — policies that create a climate for investment and spending.  In actual fact, what Moffat writes proves my point, not his. For example, he writes:

“One million jobs over eight years means that the Ontario economy would need to average 125,000 jobs a year over this period (which is represented by the “target” line on our graph). Since 1976 the Ontario economy has averaged only 85,000 net new jobs a year, though there have been many years that have exceeded the 125,000 threshold (1979, 1981, 1983-1988, 1997-2000 and 2003).”

I will repeat part of the last line of Moffat’s quotation. “…there have been many years that have exceeded the 125,000 threshold.” So, what is his point? That the Ontario economy would need to average 125,000 a year when the job numbers for the years 1997-2000 and 2003 were even higher. And, who was in power then? The Ontario Progressive Conservative Governments of Mike Harris and Ernie Eves.

Now, I may not be an economist like Moffat, but I can read tables. So, let’s verify his Statistics Canada numbers, keeping in mind that the red line is the annual 125,000 job target line he is talking about.  The easiest way to do this analysis is to hold a short ruler sideways above the year. Here is what you will get — recognizing that the numbers are approximate:

  • 1995 – 75,000 jobs were created in Ontario
  • 1996 – 65,000
  • 1997 – 100,000
  • 1998 – 150,000
  • 1999 – 185,000
  • 2000 – 185,000
  • 2001 – 105,000
  • 2002 – 125,000
  • 2003 – 185,000

So, the grand total of jobs created over 8 years from 1995 to 2003 is 1,175,000.

Which means, that without a shadow of a doubt, with the right pro-business and investment policies in place, an ONPC Tim Hudak government can indeed create one million jobs.

How will they do that?  Certainly not by depending “on luck.” According to what Hudak has said, they will lower both personal and corporate taxes. They will also loosen or reduce red tape for businesses because regulation compliance costs employee time and money.

And, anyone who doubts (as some commenters under the Moffat article do) there are rules and regulations on the Ontario Government’s books that impede entrepreneurship, has never been in business for themselves.

Anyway, the result is that when Ontarians have more money in their pockets, they buy products and services. And, when businesses have more money because they are selling more of their products or services, that increase in purchasing power results in a booming economy. And, with more demand, businesses hire more people and new businesses are created.

Of course, when more people are working, more tax revenues flow into the Ontario government’s coffers — which is exactly what happened between 1995 and 2003.

Yet, how often do we hear complaints from the Ontario Liberals and Liberal supporters that Mike Harris somehow “destroyed” Ontario. Well, the proof is in these statistics. What is also obvious in these statistics is, apart from the Liberal Peterson years from 1985 to 1989, how NDP and Liberal governments mean the death of jobs, huge deficits and “have not” status.

I mean, look at that Stats Can table again and note the two Death Valley drops in jobs during both the Bob Rae 1990-1994 NDP years and the Dalton McGuinty 2007 to 2009 years — when between 150,000 to 185,000 jobs were lost a year!

As well, note that job growth was at a peak when the Ontario Liberals took over from the PCs in mid 2003, a peak that disappeared very quickly after Ontarians were hit with the biggest tax grab ever —  the health care premium — followed by the devastating effect of the Ontario Green Energy Act and the resulting FIT Program and its job killing energy costs.

The crux of the matter is, then, that ONPC Leader Tim Hudak’s plan to create a million jobs in Ontario over eight years CAN work. Can he guarantee it will work? Of course not. But, what is the alternative? As Moffat has written about Kathleen Wynne’s job plan, it wouldn’t create a single job!!

[…]

Endnote: I have listened to Mike Moffat (whose day job is as an economics professor at the Ivey School of Business at the University of Western Ontario), several times on various TV news programs, including Sun TV, and he always seems politically balanced and fair. Kudos to him for that!!!

18 thoughts on “Stats Can proof that ONPC Leader Tim Hudak’s 1 million jobs plan CAN work!

  1. Thanks fh. It was a lot of work but I wanted to refute the constant negative comments out there, not necessarily by Moffat, but other journalists. None of us can say for sure that one million jobs can be created. My point is that the PCs have done it before!!!

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  2. Pingback: Sandy: Stats Can prove that Tim Hudak’s one million jobs plan CAN work! | Jack's Newswatch

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  5. Cold Air’s link is a good one. Written by Scott Luft, it refutes a Toronto Star journalist (Martin Regg Cohn) slagging the Hudak one million jobs act. I have no idea why these two reporters found it necessary to put cold air and water on a positive plan. Even if the PC Party did not make it, say only 600,000 jobs were created. So what? It’s improvement and proof that Ontario’s economy would be improving. If the party in power in Toronto had been the PCs, and this plan had been Liberal, the reaction I am sure would have been entirely different. Most unfortunate.

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  6. I’ll agree a million jobs can be created. You hurt your position when you add your own opinion and pick your own numbers.

    By 1989 it soon turned out that the quick recovery was illusory, as inflation increased to 5.1% in 1989 and economic growth slowed. The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates to combat inflation also slowed the economy. By 1990, economic malaise had returned with the beginning of the Gulf War and the resulting 1990 spike in the price of oil, which also increased inflation but to less of a degree as the oil crisis ten years earlier.[1][2] Nevertheless, for the next several years high unemployment, massive government budgetary deficits, and slow Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth affected the United States until late 1992 and Canada until 1995.

    So to pin the drop in the early nineties solely to Rae policies is not flattering. You may also remember the gravy yrs. with the spill over of the tech boom in the u.s. during the democratic Clinton yrs. That was when Harris was in office. You may also notice that big dip in the McGuinty yrs. was during a world wide near depression. Did someone miss that? Also, note that under McGuinty we again reached, or came close, to that 125k mark in 2011.

    You didn’t post the other chart in the McLean’s article and the notes shown there. Why? Let me assist. 1994-2002, 1995-2003, 1996-2004 and 1997-2005 are those stretches when a million jobs were created. Rae might have been hit hard in his no.s during the 1989-1991 world financial crisis but total jobs created
    were great.

    I’ll suppose you want to credit that to Mulroney. That’s fine. But just looking at the real data and keeping our opinions out of it the article shows accurately it would be difficult to create 1M jobs.

    Are we to assume that there won’t be at least a small recession between now and 2022?

    P.S. I will vote for Mr.Hudak. I don’t believe he will cut personal taxes. I do believe he will cut biz tax. This is not a great thing. Tax cuts for business have not shown to be big job creators especially with the free trade, or what we call free trade, in place. But they might keep some biz here until we can get some better rules. Case in point. It was a little story but our federal pc put a 245% tariff on mozzarella from the states. How’s that? Don’t we have a free-trade deal? Well cheese is an exception. We have a marketing board..the u.s. subsidizes. Very complicated. But you’re next dbl cheese delivery may well be more expensive. Why did that occur. Well the diary guys on our side are mostly Quebec dairy farmers and they talked to their gov. and their industry minister told the feds to do something or Quebec wouldn’t sign the new E.U. trade deal.
    Boom. Cheese tariff. Who wants the new trade deal with Korea? Saskatchewan, Quebec and places east by pop. have a much larger hog production output. Which we can’t right now get into Korea. In return Korean autos would get into Canada without a tariff. That would help Ford/GM/Chrysler in Ontario? Time for unbiased serious discussion.

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  7. Bill — You say “time for unbiased serious discussion.” Sorry, but no one alive is unbiased. Moreover, my biases are well known. My tagline says “Ontario and federal small ‘c’ conservative politics.” That is pretty clear where I stand!

    This is a personal blog so it will be about my opinions. End of story. I live in the Niagara Falls riding. The next four weeks will be openly partisan. Moreover, I worked for a Mike Harris MPP during the first mandate. One of my jobs as EA was to keep track of the job statistics. By the end of 1999, we were talking 700,000 jobs created. So, nothing in my post is exaggerated. Nothing.

    So, you have given your opinion and you have shown your own biases, which is fine. But, you are all over the map.

    Whatever. I stand by my analysis. It was not necessary for me to use the second Stats Can table. The first table provided me with the numbers I needed to prove my point.

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  8. It would be nice to be in an environment where there’s a debate on the job impact of poliicies, but we probably aren’t. That is due, in some part, to a constant claim that introducing the HST would create 300,000 jobs – a reputable number coming from a couple of reputable economists, but primarily due to changes in business and corporate taxation concurrent with the HST change. Since then those other changes have been pared back without any analysis from the press on jobs numbers, or any attempt to hold the government to account for backtracking on moves it had made jobs claims about.
    Which is why I simply note the employment level changes Hudak stated are not implausible, and not even particularly rare occurances.

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  9. Please note Sandy,. I did say I’d vote for Hudak. I do, however, want to make sure we don’t put people who may not be as good with numbers in a position where their hopes are raised by asserting that numbers tell you something they don’t. The original article didn’t state it was impossible for 1M jobs to be created. I’m not saying that. I think under current circumstances the provincial P.C.’s would be the best option. I’m also saying that other things have to be in place for the job creation to happen. As the original article indicates.

    I would note, I said you picked your own numbers to make your point. ( No Peterson yrs. or Peterson/Rae yrs. ). i did not say you made up your own numbers.

    You say we are all biased. Indeed, you are correct. I’m biased to what I think will be best for me as a Canadian. As just an average everyday Canadian, which I consider myself, I believe that would match up with the majority including yourself. I believe a number of factors are causing problems in Ontario. I’d like to know all the numbers on everything that is going on. If Mr.Hudak thinks making the 1M pledge will help get elected that is o.k. with me. I would have preferred if instead he stated is plan and said that he believed the province had the potential to create thousands of more jobs with better business conditions. If Mr. Moffat wants to show the number behind that proposal… it is info. I don’t want Mr.Hudak getting in and a purely left-biased piece writing after we hit a recession in yr.3 of his gov. ..oh, look Mr. Hudak will be way off his jobs mark that he promised. I hope your MP wins. I voted for Mike Harris.

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  10. Hi Cold Air. I agree that the Hudak is not implausible. And, that is the point isn’t it. Some people say all politicians and governments are the same. Well, they are not. Policies matter. So, do budgets. The PCs, while not perfect, are Ontario’s best hope for the future. Yet, who knows what will happen on voting day in these by-elections. Unfortunately, far too many people don’t look long term or beyond their own interests.

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  11. Bill, I simply remembered what years Peterson and Rae were in power and then checked those years against the StatsCan table. As I am sure you realize the red line in the table is between 100.0 (100,000 jobs) and 150.0 (150,000 jobs) and therefore represents 125.0 or 125,000 jobs. That is how I extrapolated the other numbers.

    I hope you are in one of the two ridings undergoing a by-election right now. Since 570 news is in Toronto, I assume you are in Thornhill.

    Your concern about a recession is well placed of course. Yet, the Harper gov’t navigated the 2008 to 2010 global breakdown very well — although you would never guess that fact by many in the media. I read comments under articles and the ranting and raving about the Conservatives is truly a disorder. While far too many are unemployed, we have stability, and people are free to move where the jobs are. Anyway, I just shake my head that there isn’t the same level of ranting against Kathleen Wynne and her Liberals.

    Oh well, I am just one blogger who is a middle of the road conservative. In the past, I would have been called a Red Tory or a Progressive Conservative. Thankfully, I have several hundred regular readers who spread the news about good conservative policies.

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  12. Sandy. Thanks for your polite response. I do have a degree which includes statistics. Canada is a great country. But we have the global issues to deal with. Ontario was especially hurt like other industrial areas of the world by the 2008 breakdown. This has caused more money to be placed in the hands of fewer people. Before one takes me for a socialist. That wouldn’t be me. Not allowing a biz to fire an employee. Not me. I like Neil Young’s music but don’t agree with his assertions about tar sands. Or at least what would he like…coal. Because the rest of the world will do that even if we don’t. Are we overpaying on public service. In these times..yes we are. I’ll keep an eye on your blog. Informed citizens have a chance to determine their future. That’s democracy at its’ best.

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